2025, Vol. 7, Issue 12, Part B

Background: Gender disparity has been a developmental global concern and a crippling phenomenon in realization of full potential of Kenya as a country. Women’s condition is characterized by time poverty, petty trade, low education attainment, undesired health outcomes, little to no inclusion in pertinent decision-making processes. In Kenya, the situation is perceived to be improving courtesy of progressive promulgated constitution. This paper seeks to explore progress towards gender inclusivity through the lens of political representation.

Objective: To review the progress towards realization of two-thirds gender rule in Kenya and predict its possible realization.

Method: The study reviews data contained in statutory state and nonstate documents including international convention reports. Quantitative data is mined from parliamentary Hansard covering 1^st - 13^th August Houses. Descriptive and time series ARIMA model analysis is done to forecast future projections of political representation and achievement of the two-thirds gender rule. Qualitative analysis is equally conducted to capture interests that would not be obtained otherwise. Results are interpreted and discussed.

Results: The analysis revealed that the beginning of multiparty democracy in 1992 resulting in 7^th parliament; and Agenda Four Reforms preceding 11^th parliament, particularly new constitutional dispensation, bolstered female representation. Presently, the 13^th Parliament has 267 and 82 males and female representatives, respectively. The gap between both genders is 185, translating to 23.5% for women. However, the two-third gender rule implies that the gap should not be more than 117, a deficit of 35 seats presently. The ARIMA model forecast shows the likelihood of two-thirds gender rule being achieved and surpassed after 2047.

Conclusion: With continued progressive reforms and pertinent legislation, proper enforcement of Agenda Four reforms, the analysis predicts that two-thirds gender rule achievement in the foreseeable future.